The National Institute of Population and Security Research forecasted that those aged 65 and above will make up 38.7% of the population, leading to increased social security costs. The research body provides demographic forecasts every five years based on public data such as censuses. The latest data will help the government calculate future pension payouts.
The working-age population aged 15 to 64 is projected to decrease sharply to 45.35 million in 2070 from 75.09 million in 2020. Foreign residents are expected to comprise 10.8% of the population at 9.39 million in 2070, expanding from 2.2% in 2020.
The average age of the population is forecasted to be 47.6 in 2020, rising to 54.0 in 2070. The projected fertility rate for 2070 is slightly up from 1.33 in 2020, but still well below the threshold of 2.07 required to maintain the population.
Despite the rise in foreign residents, Masashi Kawai, director of a research center on population decline prevention, argues that the latest data does not accurately account for pandemic-caused declines in the younger generation's desire to have children. Stressing the need for "strategic shrinking" of society, he called for establishing compact cities with centralized services.
Japan has fallen to the 11th most populous nation by 2022 and is projected to fall to 17th by 2050. South Korea is also struggling with a declining birth rate. Its population of around 51.8 million in 2022 is expected to shrink to 45.8 million by 2050. (ILKHA)
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