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"Forcing unitary state in Yemen will lead to the continuation of the war"
Google News'te Doğruhaber'e abone olun. 

Strategy Thought and Analysis Center [SDAM] published an analysis titled “The Struggle for Power in Yemen and the Civil War”. In the analysis, the situation of Yemen before the Houthi movement, the developments after the Arab Spring, and the atmosphere of the ongoing civil war are evaluated generally.

Yemen before the Houthi Movement

It is said in the analysis in Yemen, which lost the qualified population by giving out to the Muslim armies to provide troops to the Islamic army in the first period of the Islam, said that the opposing tribes remain a constant problematic point where they made conflict a way of life, “In the analysis of some of the conflicting tribes, after the settlement of Imam Hadi-İlelhak Yahya b. Hüseyin in Yemen in Hegira 280 / Gregorian 893-894, the passage of a section into the Yemen population, which is one of the three in history today, to the Zaidiyyah sect led to a division in Yemen until today. This division became one of the permanent side of Yemen’s problem. Yemen in this fragmentation and instability has been under the threat of external occupation after the Ottoman State as it was before the Ottoman State.”

In the analysis, Yemen, which was among the countries with strategic values to be invaded by westerners after the discovery of India, was the target of the Portuguese first. “The Portuguese tried to invade Yemen beginning from Aden in 16th century (1517), Ottoman support against this invasion formed the beginning of the Ottoman domination in Yemen but the Ottomans did not succeed in maintaining stability in Yemen. While the Portuguese controlled some of the castles by taking advantage of the fragmented structure of Yemen, the Ottomans had problems in accepting the administration to some of the Zaidiyyah. In 1547, after Sana's seizure by the Ottoman armies led to conflicts that spanned centuries between the Ottoman Empire and Yemen Zaydi Imams. The conflict between the Ottoman administration and the Zaidiyya encouraged the British who ruled India in their claims concerning Yemen. In 1850, a part of south Yemen occupied by British and colonized.”

After the war, it has said in the analysis that divided into 3 parts; “British, Imam Zayedi Imamate and Idrisis Zones”. After the death of Yahya Zaydi and his son was killed, Muhammad Bedr was chosen as an imam, but Bedr by overthrown by a coup by Colonel Abdullah Sallal and declared a republic in the country.

In the analysis said that Muhammad Bedr was sheltered to the north of Yemen after the coup d'état, and that Zaidi tribes, supported by Saudi Arabia, had started a war against the republicans, “The 8 year [1962-1970] war between Zaydis, Saudi supporters and republicans, Egyptian-sponsored has ended with victory of republicans, thus ending the Imam Periods in Yemen.”

“The ‘National Liberation Front’ was established in South Yemen against the British and local city administrations holding the Aden region, Yemen has been divided into two separate republics, the Democratic People's Republic of South Yemen and the Yemeni Arab Republic (Northern Yemen). Since that date South Yemen is managed by a Socialist-Communist cadre organized in the Yemen Socialist Party, the northern Yemen was governed by a national leftist group, organized in the Yemeni General People's Congress like in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Iraq and Syria. With the weakening of socialism and the Soviet Union entering the process of dissolution, North and South Yemen joined together in 1990 and joined the combined Yemen. The first presidential elections in 1993 were held after a joint administration of 2.5 years. The former President of North Yemen and the candidate of the Yemeni General People's Congress candidate Zaydi, the national leftist Ali Abdullah Saleh has won. After the elections, the war between the North and South Yemenis was again brought to a conclusion with the victory of Ali Abdullah Saleh. Ali Abdullah Saleh was re-elected in 1999, and in 2000, he changed the constitution to extend his right to be elected president for another two terms.”

The Birth of the Houthi Movement

According to some theses, one of the difficulties of Yemeni politics is that about 85% of the people belong to more than 400 tribes, and it is stated that the social structure is formed around the tribes before Islam, and the modernization process cannot abolish tribalism.

“In addition to Zaydi imams, former President Ali Abdullah Saleh also valued tribal leaders and attempted to manage the country by exploiting the fragmentation of the social system based on tribalism. Tribalism is also an important part of the current Yemeni conflict, and in the modern era there is a growing awareness of Yemeni politics around Islamic communities and ideologies In the 1990s. The Muslim Brotherhood Movement was raising as ruling candidate with a broad public base in Yemen, established Yemen Correctional Party in 1990 with the merger of two Yemen and Yemen Reclamation Community. The party which has 46 deputies in 2003 elections turned into a platform where every part of the society could express itself so that 13 deputies including Tevekkul Karman, who received the 2011 Nobel Peace Prize in 2010, were female. Against this conservative rising, Salafism began to spread in Yemen with the initiatives of Saudi Arabia against the alliance and with the moderation of this moderate movement ‘not to face anyone’. The political conflicts and tribal disputes in Yemen have left their place to declare Zaidiyyah as unbeliever in the reflections of the social and political time.”

In the analysis, the following statements were made: “The movement, initially disturbing ordinary secular Zaidiyyah alongside the religious Zaidiyyah gathered around Ali Abdullah Saleh, increased the effectiveness of the Salafi groups in the Zeydîs from day to day and settled in the center of the Yemen politics. Ali Abdullah Saleh has made use of the Houthi Movement's relationship with Iran, has drawn closer to Saudi Arabia, who has always searched for common partners in Yemen politics, and has become a member of the Saudi Arabia. He started on the struggle against the Houthi movement by pulling some of the al-Islah leaders on his side, under the influence of Arabia. The leader of this struggle movement, Hussein Bedreddin al-Husi, was killed by Ali Abdullah Saleh regime in 2004, replaced with his brother Abdulmelik al-Husi, who was 25 years old at that time. Abdulmelik al-Husi went to the Imamiya sect and took advantage of the anti-Saudi Arabia-Iranian opposition to further his relations with Iran and enlarged the Husi movement. Salafi groups have been the most important helping factor when the Zaidiyyah repelled and acted against them, which al-Husi grew up, also known as the Ansarullah Movement.”

Arab Spring and Yemen

In the analysis, “The sections that did not appear to be problematic with Ali Abdullah Saleh in the Arab Spring process in 2011 started demonstrations against the regime by gravitating of general air in the Arab world. Ali Abdullah Saleh who had been fighting with the Houthi had to compromise with the demonstrators, explained that he and the Republican Commander General Ahmad Ali Abdullah Saleh would not be candidates in the 2013 presidential election and decided to change the constitution to override the term limitation in the presidential elections but did not have enough to stop the demonstration. On March 18, 2011, 50 people killed in demonstrations in Sana, Ali Abdullah Saleh's harsh stance led to disagreements in the regime. On 21 March the northern region and 1st Armored Brigade Commander General Ali Muhsin left the regime and joined the opposition. Ali Abdullah Saleh left the country on grounds of his health problems and went to Saudi Arabia firth and then to the United States.”

In the analysis it is said that Ali Abdullah Saleh resigned in the face of the confiscation of his possessions the UN and the US.

“But the administration has also been handed over to Vice President Abd Rabbuh Mansur al-Hadi, who belongs to the General People's Congress of his party. According to the United Nations report, ‘the new President Mansur al-Hadi, became unsuccessful against Houthi. On June 9, 2014, the People's Committees captured the city of Amran in the North of Sana'a, and on August 18, 2014 tens of thousands of pro-Houthi demonstrators organized protests against the ruling capital in Sana'a, seized the streets. In September 2014, with the President Mansur al-Hadi, a ‘National Partnership Agreement’ was signed between the Houthi’s delegates and the major political parties. A new technocratic government was established with this treaty. This hope-inspiring ended with the objection of Houthi and actually the US also wasn’t happy with the end of war. According to the UN report, the Constitutional Draft Committee on January 7, 2015 presented a new Constitution to Yemeni President al-Hadi. On January 17, 2015, General Ahmed Awad bin Mubarak the Constitutional Draft Committee Chairman of the Personnel Department and the National Dialogue Conference Secretary, was kidnapped by public committees. On January 19, 2015, a new conflict ended up between the president supporters and Houthi fans. In retaliation, the Houthis took possession of the Presidential Palace and the official residence of President al-Hadhi.”

After this date, it was determined that the capital Sana was captured by Houthis and that President al-Hadi was escaped to the south, and that the war in Yemen was now a tuend into a civil war.

In the analysis said that Saudi Arabia participated in the war by air bombing against the Houthi by taking the support of the USA which is doing operations in Yemen, “The participation of Saudi aircraft in the war led to the massacres in which hundreds of people lost their lives in the beginning of October 2016. The United States has been conducting direct operations under the name of fighting al-Qaeda and Daesh from time to time in Yemen, while Houthis accusing the US, which has never directly operated against them [Houthis], to engage in war through Saudi Arabia. President of the Yemeni General People's Congress Mansur al-Hadhi while is in the south of Yemen, and heading the government established in Aden, and led the war by the Saudis to the south of Yemen, the former President Ali Abdullah Saleh had changed his side while he was in the US. Ali Abdullah Saleh passed on to the Houthis’ side who had slaughtered the founding leaders of Houthi in 2004, returned to Yemen some time ago, in the capital Sana there was an enthusiastic welcoming ceremony. As Mansur al-Hadhi communicates with international powers as the head of the South government, Ali Abdullah Saleh continues to negotiate with Western delegations on behalf of the Houthis on the future of the country. Saudi Arabia, which has become the de facto actor of the Yemen war, has been searching for a new way for the hegemony on Yemen not to end. Saudi Arabia began to contact the Yemeni tribes, which had previously been distant, and began to make plans to re-dominate the Sana by bringing together the militia of the Mansur al-Hadhi government in the southern city of Aden, the People's Resistance Force, and tribal warriors.”

The multi-lateral war in Yemen, which emphasizes in the analysis the fact that the groups are constantly changing the sides because of their opportunistic approach, said “It is not possible to name this war as a sectarian war despite the relationship with the sects and the hope that foreign powers have given them. The problem is fragmentation, which is based on tribal nervousness and political life, which prevents the formation of a strong hierarchy of states that will regulate social life. The disintegration in Yemen has led to the adoption of different sects and sectarian differences have facilitated the intervention of external forces as well as allowing groups to find space for themselves. It is impossible to establish a unitary state at present in Yemen. Apart from some structures in South Yemen, the unitary state in Yemen stands as a dream that all the groups have centered themselves. In this case, it is not known how the Yemen will proceed on its way. (ILKHA)

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